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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."