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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.